International Monetary Fund envisages India to grow at 6.5% by the end of 2016, eventually surpassing China, in its recently published World Economic Outlook. IMF lays its opinion on the new policy driven government in India and gradual slump in Chinese demand.
This should not be viewed as China passing its torch of aggressive growth to India. The law of diminishing return suggests that the country with lower GDP has greater growth prospects than the country with higher GDP. Indian GDP being amply lower than China, implies that India has not yet realized its true growth opportunities.
The new regime in India is expected to remove the impediments that have hampered its growth. Both India and China have a long way to go before they attain the standards of a developed nation.
It is imperative that both India and China will need energy to fuel its growth. During this course, they will be emitting a tremendous amount of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. A glance at Emission Intensity – a measure of amount of Carbon Dioxide emitted per unit of GDP created – pattern gives us a clear picture on the room for efficiency gain available in these countries.
It will be interesting to see how the policies in the new Indian regime will unfold to ensure its adherence to the global effort to limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
The Paris Summit
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has impelled every country to commit to a quantified action plan - Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) - to deter GHG emission. The terms in INDC will be open to negotiation in the Paris Summit scheduled for December 2015. The foundation to the Paris Summit was strengthened during the Lima Conference where several countries agreed upon the critical key points.
After the momentous US-Sino deal on emission during the APEC meet, all eyes are upon India to take the initiative. US has agreed to reduce its emission by 26-28% below its 2005 level by 2025 and China will peak its Carbon Dioxide emission by 2030.
It was not a difficult commitment for China to make. It has already brought 500 million people out of poverty since its market reforms, achieving 98% electrification of home. It is far ahead of India on the development curve and its GDP growth is expected to decline in future. It also has controlled its rapid population growth. With all these factors and its expertise in clean energy technology, it is expected that China's demand for fossil fuel will peak soon.
India's Stand
India is nowhere near China in its success story. The new regime has rekindled a hope for Indians. It will certainly need a lot of energy to let its dreams materialize. This inhibits it from making any commitment in regards of emissions. However its ambitious plans in clean energy suggest that it has already taken the rain check.
"India's development imperatives cannot be sacrificed at the altar of potential climate changes many years in the future. The West will have to recognize we have the needs of the poor." - Piyush Goyal, India's Power Minister
Although India is the third largest emitter of Carbon Dioxide, it is substantially below the level of emissions by US and China, both in absolute and per capita terms. It is not the current level of Indian emissions that concerns the international community. The fact that the development of India is delayed gives it an advantage to harness the modern energy efficient technology to bolster its growth. Thus the responsibility lies upon India to avail the cleaner technology and not commit the same mistake that the now developed countries have done.
With the environment centric approach and "Make in India" concept, Prime Minister Modi has assured the world of India's devotion to abate climate change.
Bibliography
Data Sources
This should not be viewed as China passing its torch of aggressive growth to India. The law of diminishing return suggests that the country with lower GDP has greater growth prospects than the country with higher GDP. Indian GDP being amply lower than China, implies that India has not yet realized its true growth opportunities.
The new regime in India is expected to remove the impediments that have hampered its growth. Both India and China have a long way to go before they attain the standards of a developed nation.
It is imperative that both India and China will need energy to fuel its growth. During this course, they will be emitting a tremendous amount of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. A glance at Emission Intensity – a measure of amount of Carbon Dioxide emitted per unit of GDP created – pattern gives us a clear picture on the room for efficiency gain available in these countries.
It will be interesting to see how the policies in the new Indian regime will unfold to ensure its adherence to the global effort to limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
The Paris Summit
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has impelled every country to commit to a quantified action plan - Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) - to deter GHG emission. The terms in INDC will be open to negotiation in the Paris Summit scheduled for December 2015. The foundation to the Paris Summit was strengthened during the Lima Conference where several countries agreed upon the critical key points.
After the momentous US-Sino deal on emission during the APEC meet, all eyes are upon India to take the initiative. US has agreed to reduce its emission by 26-28% below its 2005 level by 2025 and China will peak its Carbon Dioxide emission by 2030.
It was not a difficult commitment for China to make. It has already brought 500 million people out of poverty since its market reforms, achieving 98% electrification of home. It is far ahead of India on the development curve and its GDP growth is expected to decline in future. It also has controlled its rapid population growth. With all these factors and its expertise in clean energy technology, it is expected that China's demand for fossil fuel will peak soon.
India's Stand
India is nowhere near China in its success story. The new regime has rekindled a hope for Indians. It will certainly need a lot of energy to let its dreams materialize. This inhibits it from making any commitment in regards of emissions. However its ambitious plans in clean energy suggest that it has already taken the rain check.
"India's development imperatives cannot be sacrificed at the altar of potential climate changes many years in the future. The West will have to recognize we have the needs of the poor." - Piyush Goyal, India's Power Minister
Although India is the third largest emitter of Carbon Dioxide, it is substantially below the level of emissions by US and China, both in absolute and per capita terms. It is not the current level of Indian emissions that concerns the international community. The fact that the development of India is delayed gives it an advantage to harness the modern energy efficient technology to bolster its growth. Thus the responsibility lies upon India to avail the cleaner technology and not commit the same mistake that the now developed countries have done.
With the environment centric approach and "Make in India" concept, Prime Minister Modi has assured the world of India's devotion to abate climate change.
Bibliography
Data Sources
- World Bank
- BP
- EIA
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